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bc体育的网址木屑顆粒供應能否跟上亞洲的需求

作者:bc体育的网址   |   时间:2020-02-20 00:10   |   浏览:116   

AswehavediscussedinourseriesofblogsontheAsianbiomassmarket,demandisgrowingrapidlyintheregion.Thisposesthequestion,willtherebeenoughbiomasssupplytomeetitHereIwilllookatthesupply-demandbalanceforwoodpelletsintheregionandtheoutlookforthecomingyears.

我們的估量表白亞洲的工業顆粒需求在2018年可能到達490萬噸,比2017年增加49%。韓國和日本的顆粒需求估計將繼續增加。我們估量它可能會在2027年到達1300萬噸。有幾個因素會影響所有需求能否實現,最重要的多是生物質的可用性。

bc体育的网址OurestimatesindicatethatindustrialpelletdemandinAsiacouldreach4.9Mtin2018,anincreaseof+49%on2017.AndSouthKoreanandJapanesepelletdemandisexpectedtocontinuetogrowbeyondthat.Weestimateitcouldriseto13Mtin2027.Severalfactorswillimpactwhetherallthatdemandmaterialises,withperhapsthemostimportantbeingtheavailabilityofbiomass.

我們的2018年第二季度木屑顆粒察看陳述的數據顯示,全球有4400萬噸/年的木屑顆粒消費才能(供和暖工業),此中近600萬噸是亞洲,澳大利亞和加拿大西部的工業產能。有關各國供應才能和項目的更深化細分,請參閱亞太生物質陳述。

DatafromourQ22018OutlookforWoodPelletsreportshowsthatgloballythereis44Mt/yofwoodpelletproductioncapacity(heatingandindustrial)andalmost6Mt/yofthatisindustrialcapacityinAsia,AustraliaandwesternCanada.Foramorein-depthbreakdownofsupplycapacityandprojectsinthepipelinebycountrypleaserefertoourAsiaPacificbiomassreport.

當前有足夠的供應來滿足該地區的需求,但從我們的數據可以清楚地看出,假設供應可以滿足需求,則需要更多的投資。日本公用事業公司正在考慮上游投資以確保他們所需的供應。此外,日本用戶供應10至15年的承購合同,這些合同已獲得關稅補助,將吸引投資者撐持新的供應才能。到當前為止,趨勢是日本公用事業公司已經與Engie,Pinnacle和Enviva(但凡通過日本貿易公司)等出名行業參加者簽訂了供應合同,但跟著買家擴大其凈值,我們可能會看到更多的新成員。

Currentlythereisenoughsupplytomatchdemandintheregionbutwhatisclearfromourfiguresisthatmoreinvestmentisneededifsupplyistokeepupwithdemand.Asdiscussedinmybloghere,Japaneseutilitiesarenowconsideringupstreaminvestmenttosecurethesupplytheywillneed.Inaddition,theofferof10to15-yearofftakecontractsfromJapaneseusers,whichhavesecuredFeed-in-Tariffsubsidy,willattractinvestorstobacknewsupplycapacity.Sofar,thetrendhasbeenthatJapaneseutilitieshavesignedsupplycontractswithwell-establishedindustryplayerssuchasEngie,PinnacleandEnviva(oftenthroughtheJapanesetradinghouses)butperhapswewillseemorenewcomerstotheindustryasbuyerswidentheirnet.

另外一個問題是產能能否可以足夠快地上線?東南亞市場已經證明它可以快速成立新的產能。最顯著的例子是越南在6年內向韓國出口達100倍,2017年向韓國出口超越150萬噸。大大都出口的顆粒來自幾家小型工廠,但凡不到2萬噸/年。馬來西亞、泰國和印度尼西亞也快速擴大了產能并繼續。再次,供應次要是很多小型工廠。通過在現有鋸木廠建筑顆粒廠,俄羅斯的供應才能也快速增加,通過操縱現有根底設施和輕松獵取原原料節省了時間和成本。俄羅斯次要供應歐洲供熱市場,但最近的擴張不斷存眷亞洲市場。供應商已經呈現撐持韓國現貨市場,但很少有持久承購合同。

AfurtherquestioniswhethercapacitycanbebroughtonlinefastenoughTheSouthEastAsiamarkethasdemonstratedthatitcanbuildnewcapacityrapidly.TheclearestexampleisVietnamwhichgrewitsexportstoSouthKorea100timesoverinthespaceofsixyears,sendingover1.5MttoKoreain2017.Mostpelletssentforexportarecollectedfromseveralsmallmills,usuallylessthan20kt/y.Malaysia,ThailandandIndonesiahavealsoexpandedtheircapacityquicklyandcontinuetodoso.Again,supplyisdominatedbylotsofsmallmills.Russiahasalsoseenswiftgrowthinitssupplycapacitybybuildingpelletmillsatexistingsawmills,savingtimeandcostsbyutilisingexistinginfrastructureandhavingeasyaccesstorawmaterials.RussiamainlysuppliestheEuropeanheatingmarket,butrecentexpansionshavebeenwithaneyeontheAsianmarket.(SubscriberscanreadmoreinForestEnergyMonitor#87,p.7).SuppliershaveemergedtosupporttheSouthKoreanspotmarket,butfewhavelong-termofftakecontracts.

比擬之下,加拿大市場已經擴大,以滿足日益增加的日本需求。日本買家喜愛加拿大供應的安寧性,但北美的工廠規模較大(但凡超越30萬噸/年),以操縱規模經濟,意味著停頓有點慢。但凡必需籌集大量資金,這需要遍及的盡職觀察和安寧的承購合同,并且規劃進程可能需要比世界別的地區更長的時間。當然加拿大西部超越每一年100萬噸的項目正在開拓中,但假設需要快速找到大量供應,日本將無法完全依賴加拿大。

Incontrast,theCanadianmarkethasexpandedtohelpmeetgrowingJapanesedemand.JapanesebuyershavefavouredthesecurityofCanadiansupplybutthelargerscaleofplantsinNorthAmerica(oftenover300kt/y),totakeadvantageofeconomiesofscale,meansprogressisalittleslower.Normallysignificantfundsmustberaisedwhichneedsextensiveduediligenceandsecureofftakecontracts,plustheplanningprocessescantakelongerthaninotherpartsoftheworld.AlthoughwesternCanadahasover1Mt/yofprojectsindevelopment,JapanwillnotbeabletorelysolelyonCanadaifitneedstofindsignificantsupplyquickly.

AswehavediscussedinourseriesofblogsontheAsianbiomassmarket,demandisgrowingrapidlyintheregion.Thisposesthequestion,willtherebeenoughbiomasssupplytomeetitHereIwilllookatthesupply-demandbalanceforwoodpelletsintheregionandtheoutlookforthecomingyears.

我們的估量表白亞洲的工業顆粒需求在2018年可能到達490萬噸,比2017年增加49%。韓國和日本的顆粒需求估計將繼續增加。我們估量它可能會在2027年到達1300萬噸。有幾個因素會影響所有需求能否實現,最重要的多是生物質的可用性。

OurestimatesindicatethatindustrialpelletdemandinAsiacouldreach4.9Mtin2018,anincreaseof+49%on2017.AndSouthKoreanandJapanesepelletdemandisexpectedtocontinuetogrowbeyondthat.Weestimateitcouldriseto13Mtin2027.Severalfactorswillimpactwhetherallthatdemandmaterialises,withperhapsthemostimportantbeingtheavailabilityofbiomass.

我們的2018年第二季度木屑顆粒察看陳述的數據顯示,全球有4400萬噸/年的木屑顆粒消費才能(供和暖工業),此中近600萬噸是亞洲,澳大利亞和加拿大西部的工業產能。有關各國供應才能和項目的更深化細分,請參閱亞太生物質陳述。

DatafromourQ22018OutlookforWoodPelletsreportshowsthatgloballythereis44Mt/yofwoodpelletproductioncapacity(heatingandindustrial)andalmost6Mt/yofthatisindustrialcapacityinAsia,AustraliaandwesternCanada.Foramorein-depthbreakdownofsupplycapacityandprojectsinthepipelinebycountrypleaserefertoourAsiaPacificbiomassreport.

當前有足夠的供應來滿足該地區的需求,但從我們的數據可以清楚地看出,假設供應可以滿足需求,則需要更多的投資。日本公用事業公司正在考慮上游投資以確保他們所需的供應。此外,日本用戶供應10至15年的承購合同,這些合同已獲得關稅補助,將吸引投資者撐持新的供應才能。到當前為止,趨勢是日本公用事業公司已經與Engie,Pinnacle和Enviva(但凡通過日本貿易公司)等出名行業參加者簽訂了供應合同,但跟著買家擴大其凈值,我們可能會看到更多的新成員。

Currentlythereisenoughsupplytomatchdemandintheregionbutwhatisclearfromourfiguresisthatmoreinvestmentisneededifsupplyistokeepupwithdemand.Asdiscussedinmybloghere,Japaneseutilitiesarenowconsideringupstreaminvestmenttosecurethesupplytheywillneed.Inaddition,theofferof10to15-yearofftakecontractsfromJapaneseusers,whichhavesecuredFeed-in-Tariffsubsidy,willattractinvestorstobacknewsupplycapacity.Sofar,thetrendhasbeenthatJapaneseutilitieshavesignedsupplycontractswithwell-establishedindustryplayerssuchasEngie,PinnacleandEnviva(oftenthroughtheJapanesetradinghouses)butperhapswewillseemorenewcomerstotheindustryasbuyerswidentheirnet.

另外一個問題是產能能否可以足夠快地上線?東南亞市場已經證明它可以快速成立新的產能。最顯著的例子是越南在6年內向韓國出口達100倍,2017年向韓國出口超越150萬噸。大大都出口的顆粒來自幾家小型工廠,但凡不到2萬噸/年。馬來西亞、泰國和印度尼西亞也快速擴大了產能并繼續。再次,供應次要是很多小型工廠。通過在現有鋸木廠建筑顆粒廠,俄羅斯的供應才能也快速增加,通過操縱現有根底設施和輕松獵取原原料節省了時間和成本。俄羅斯次要供應歐洲供熱市場,但最近的擴張不斷存眷亞洲市場。供應商已經呈現撐持韓國現貨市場,但很少有持久承購合同。

AfurtherquestioniswhethercapacitycanbebroughtonlinefastenoughTheSouthEastAsiamarkethasdemonstratedthatitcanbuildnewcapacityrapidly.TheclearestexampleisVietnamwhichgrewitsexportstoSouthKorea100timesoverinthespaceofsixyears,sendingover1.5MttoKoreain2017.Mostpelletssentforexportarecollectedfromseveralsmallmills,usuallylessthan20kt/y.Malaysia,ThailandandIndonesiahavealsoexpandedtheircapacityquicklyandcontinuetodoso.Again,supplyisdominatedbylotsofsmallmills.Russiahasalsoseenswiftgrowthinitssupplycapacitybybuildingpelletmillsatexistingsawmills,savingtimeandcostsbyutilisingexistinginfrastructureandhavingeasyaccesstorawmaterials.RussiamainlysuppliestheEuropeanheatingmarket,butrecentexpansionshavebeenwithaneyeontheAsianmarket.(SubscriberscanreadmoreinForestEnergyMonitor#87,p.7).SuppliershaveemergedtosupporttheSouthKoreanspotmarket,butfewhavelong-termofftakecontracts.

比擬之下,加拿大市場已經擴大,以滿足日益增加的日本需求。日本買家喜愛加拿大供應的安寧性,但北美的工廠規模較大(但凡超越30萬噸/年),以操縱規模經濟,意味著停頓有點慢。但凡必需籌集大量資金,這需要遍及的盡職觀察和安寧的承購合同,并且規劃進程可能需要比世界別的地區更長的時間。當然加拿大西部超越每一年100萬噸的項目正在開拓中,但假設需要快速找到大量供應,日本將無法完全依賴加拿大。

Incontrast,theCanadianmarkethasexpandedtohelpmeetgrowingJapanesedemand.JapanesebuyershavefavouredthesecurityofCanadiansupplybutthelargerscaleofplantsinNorthAmerica(oftenover300kt/y),totakeadvantageofeconomiesofscale,meansprogressisalittleslower.Normallysignificantfundsmustberaisedwhichneedsextensiveduediligenceandsecureofftakecontracts,plustheplanningprocessescantakelongerthaninotherpartsoftheworld.AlthoughwesternCanadahasover1Mt/yofprojectsindevelopment,JapanwillnotbeabletorelysolelyonCanadaifitneedstofindsignificantsupplyquickly.

全球各個開展階段的工業產能超越1840萬噸。假設所有都上線,工業產能將在如今的根底上增加84%,但假設要實現預測需求程度,所有這些必需在2026年開拓。但是,該行業的短時間情況將更具挑戰性。在2019年,需求和供應似乎非常平均,依據我們的計較,2020年可能呈現供應短缺,這意味著方案的項目必需快速開展。

Thereisover18.4Mt/yofindustrialcapacityinvariousstagesofdevelopmentglobally.Ifallweretocomeonline,industrialcapacitywouldgrow+84%fromtodaybutallofthatmustbedevelopedby2026ifforecastlevelsofdemandaretoberealised.However,theshort-termsituationfortheindustrywillbemorechallenging.Demandandsupplyappeartobeveryfinelybalancedin2019and,accordingtoourcalculations,therecouldbeadeficitinsupplyin2020,meaningtheplannedprojectsmustbedevelopedquickly.

Thereisover18.4Mt/yofindustrialcapacityinvariousstagesofdevelopmentglobally.Ifallweretocomeonline,industrialcapacitywouldgrow+84%fromtodaybutallofthatmustbedevelopedby2026ifforecastlevelsofdemandaretoberealised.However,theshort-termsituationfortheindustrywillbemorechallenging.Demandandsupplyappeartobeveryfinelybalancedin2019and,accordingtoourcalculations,therecouldbeadeficitinsupplyin2020,meaningtheplannedprojectsmustbedevelopedquickly.



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