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木屑颗粒供应能否跟上亚洲的需求

作者:bc体育的网址   |   时间:2020-01-09 04:38   |   浏览:155   

AswehavediscussedinourseriesofblogsontheAsianbiomassmarket,demandisgrowingrapidlyintheregion.Thisposesthequestion,willtherebeenoughbiomasssupplytomeetitHereIwilllookatthesupply-demandbalanceforwoodpelletsintheregionandtheoutlookforthecomingyears.

bc体育的网址OurestimatesindicatethatindustrialpelletdemandinAsiacouldreach4.9Mtin2018,anincreaseof+49%on2017.AndSouthKoreanandJapanesepelletdemandisexpectedtocontinuetogrowbeyondthat.Weestimateitcouldriseto13Mtin2027.Severalfactorswillimpactwhetherallthatdemandmaterialises,withperhapsthemostimportantbeingtheavailabilityofbiomass.

DatafromourQ22018OutlookforWoodPelletsreportshowsthatgloballythereis44Mt/yofwoodpelletproductioncapacity(heatingandindustrial)andalmost6Mt/yofthatisindustrialcapacityinAsia,AustraliaandwesternCanada.Foramorein-depthbreakdownofsupplycapacityandprojectsinthepipelinebycountrypleaserefertoourAsiaPacificbiomassreport.

目前有足夠的供應來滿足該地區的需求,但從我們的數據可以清楚地看出,如果供應能夠滿足需求,則需要更多的投資。日本公用事業公司正在考慮上游投資以確保他們所需的供應。此外,日本用戶提供10至15年的承購合同,這些合同已獲得關稅補貼,將吸引投資者支持新的供應能力。到目前為止,趨勢是日本公用事業公司已經與Engie,Pinnacle和Enviva(通常通過日本貿易公司)等知名行業參與者簽訂了供應合同,但隨著買家擴大其凈值,我們可能會看到更多的新成員。

Currentlythereisenoughsupplytomatchdemandintheregionbutwhatisclearfromourfiguresisthatmoreinvestmentisneededifsupplyistokeepupwithdemand.Asdiscussedinmybloghere,Japaneseutilitiesarenowconsideringupstreaminvestmenttosecurethesupplytheywillneed.Inaddition,theofferof10to15-yearofftakecontractsfromJapaneseusers,whichhavesecuredFeed-in-Tariffsubsidy,willattractinvestorstobacknewsupplycapacity.Sofar,thetrendhasbeenthatJapaneseutilitieshavesignedsupplycontractswithwell-establishedindustryplayerssuchasEngie,PinnacleandEnviva(oftenthroughtheJapanesetradinghouses)butperhapswewillseemorenewcomerstotheindustryasbuyerswidentheirnet.

另一個問題是產能是否能夠足夠快地上線?東南亞市場已經證明它可以迅速建立新的產能。最明顯的例子是越南在6年內向韓國出口達100倍,2017年向韓國出口超過150萬噸。大多數出口的顆粒來自幾家小型工廠,通常不到2萬噸/年。馬來西亞、泰國和印度尼西亞也迅速擴大了產能并持續。再次,供應主要是許多小型工廠。通過在現有鋸木廠建造顆粒廠,俄羅斯的供應能力也迅速增長,通過利用現有基礎設施和輕松獲取原材料節省了時間和成本。俄羅斯主要供應歐洲供熱市場,但最近的擴張一直關注亞洲市場。供應商已經出現支持韓國現貨市場,但很少有長期承購合同。

AfurtherquestioniswhethercapacitycanbebroughtonlinefastenoughTheSouthEastAsiamarkethasdemonstratedthatitcanbuildnewcapacityrapidly.TheclearestexampleisVietnamwhichgrewitsexportstoSouthKorea100timesoverinthespaceofsixyears,sendingover1.5MttoKoreain2017.Mostpelletssentforexportarecollectedfromseveralsmallmills,usuallylessthan20kt/y.Malaysia,ThailandandIndonesiahavealsoexpandedtheircapacityquicklyandcontinuetodoso.Again,supplyisdominatedbylotsofsmallmills.Russiahasalsoseenswiftgrowthinitssupplycapacitybybuildingpelletmillsatexistingsawmills,savingtimeandcostsbyutilisingexistinginfrastructureandhavingeasyaccesstorawmaterials.RussiamainlysuppliestheEuropeanheatingmarket,butrecentexpansionshavebeenwithaneyeontheAsianmarket.(SubscriberscanreadmoreinForestEnergyMonitor#87,p.7).SuppliershaveemergedtosupporttheSouthKoreanspotmarket,butfewhavelong-termofftakecontracts.

Incontrast,theCanadianmarkethasexpandedtohelpmeetgrowingJapanesedemand.JapanesebuyershavefavouredthesecurityofCanadiansupplybutthelargerscaleofplantsinNorthAmerica(oftenover300kt/y),totakeadvantageofeconomiesofscale,meansprogressisalittleslower.Normallysignificantfundsmustberaisedwhichneedsextensiveduediligenceandsecureofftakecontracts,plustheplanningprocessescantakelongerthaninotherpartsoftheworld.AlthoughwesternCanadahasover1Mt/yofprojectsindevelopment,JapanwillnotbeabletorelysolelyonCanadaifitneedstofindsignificantsupplyquickly.

AswehavediscussedinourseriesofblogsontheAsianbiomassmarket,demandisgrowingrapidlyintheregion.Thisposesthequestion,willtherebeenoughbiomasssupplytomeetitHereIwilllookatthesupply-demandbalanceforwoodpelletsintheregionandtheoutlookforthecomingyears.

OurestimatesindicatethatindustrialpelletdemandinAsiacouldreach4.9Mtin2018,anincreaseof+49%on2017.AndSouthKoreanandJapanesepelletdemandisexpectedtocontinuetogrowbeyondthat.Weestimateitcouldriseto13Mtin2027.Severalfactorswillimpactwhetherallthatdemandmaterialises,withperhapsthemostimportantbeingtheavailabilityofbiomass.

DatafromourQ22018OutlookforWoodPelletsreportshowsthatgloballythereis44Mt/yofwoodpelletproductioncapacity(heatingandindustrial)andalmost6Mt/yofthatisindustrialcapacityinAsia,AustraliaandwesternCanada.Foramorein-depthbreakdownofsupplycapacityandprojectsinthepipelinebycountrypleaserefertoourAsiaPacificbiomassreport.

目前有足夠的供應來滿足該地區的需求,但從我們的數據可以清楚地看出,如果供應能夠滿足需求,則需要更多的投資。日本公用事業公司正在考慮上游投資以確保他們所需的供應。此外,日本用戶提供10至15年的承購合同,這些合同已獲得關稅補貼,將吸引投資者支持新的供應能力。到目前為止,趨勢是日本公用事業公司已經與Engie,Pinnacle和Enviva(通常通過日本貿易公司)等知名行業參與者簽訂了供應合同,但隨著買家擴大其凈值,我們可能會看到更多的新成員。

Currentlythereisenoughsupplytomatchdemandintheregionbutwhatisclearfromourfiguresisthatmoreinvestmentisneededifsupplyistokeepupwithdemand.Asdiscussedinmybloghere,Japaneseutilitiesarenowconsideringupstreaminvestmenttosecurethesupplytheywillneed.Inaddition,theofferof10to15-yearofftakecontractsfromJapaneseusers,whichhavesecuredFeed-in-Tariffsubsidy,willattractinvestorstobacknewsupplycapacity.Sofar,thetrendhasbeenthatJapaneseutilitieshavesignedsupplycontractswithwell-establishedindustryplayerssuchasEngie,PinnacleandEnviva(oftenthroughtheJapanesetradinghouses)butperhapswewillseemorenewcomerstotheindustryasbuyerswidentheirnet.

另一個問題是產能是否能夠足夠快地上線?東南亞市場已經證明它可以迅速建立新的產能。最明顯的例子是越南在6年內向韓國出口達100倍,2017年向韓國出口超過150萬噸。大多數出口的顆粒來自幾家小型工廠,通常不到2萬噸/年。馬來西亞、泰國和印度尼西亞也迅速擴大了產能并持續。再次,供應主要是許多小型工廠。通過在現有鋸木廠建造顆粒廠,俄羅斯的供應能力也迅速增長,通過利用現有基礎設施和輕松獲取原材料節省了時間和成本。俄羅斯主要供應歐洲供熱市場,但最近的擴張一直關注亞洲市場。供應商已經出現支持韓國現貨市場,但很少有長期承購合同。

AfurtherquestioniswhethercapacitycanbebroughtonlinefastenoughTheSouthEastAsiamarkethasdemonstratedthatitcanbuildnewcapacityrapidly.TheclearestexampleisVietnamwhichgrewitsexportstoSouthKorea100timesoverinthespaceofsixyears,sendingover1.5MttoKoreain2017.Mostpelletssentforexportarecollectedfromseveralsmallmills,usuallylessthan20kt/y.Malaysia,ThailandandIndonesiahavealsoexpandedtheircapacityquicklyandcontinuetodoso.Again,supplyisdominatedbylotsofsmallmills.Russiahasalsoseenswiftgrowthinitssupplycapacitybybuildingpelletmillsatexistingsawmills,savingtimeandcostsbyutilisingexistinginfrastructureandhavingeasyaccesstorawmaterials.RussiamainlysuppliestheEuropeanheatingmarket,butrecentexpansionshavebeenwithaneyeontheAsianmarket.(SubscriberscanreadmoreinForestEnergyMonitor#87,p.7).SuppliershaveemergedtosupporttheSouthKoreanspotmarket,butfewhavelong-termofftakecontracts.

Incontrast,theCanadianmarkethasexpandedtohelpmeetgrowingJapanesedemand.JapanesebuyershavefavouredthesecurityofCanadiansupplybutthelargerscaleofplantsinNorthAmerica(oftenover300kt/y),totakeadvantageofeconomiesofscale,meansprogressisalittleslower.Normallysignificantfundsmustberaisedwhichneedsextensiveduediligenceandsecureofftakecontracts,plustheplanningprocessescantakelongerthaninotherpartsoftheworld.AlthoughwesternCanadahasover1Mt/yofprojectsindevelopment,JapanwillnotbeabletorelysolelyonCanadaifitneedstofindsignificantsupplyquickly.

Thereisover18.4Mt/yofindustrialcapacityinvariousstagesofdevelopmentglobally.Ifallweretocomeonline,industrialcapacitywouldgrow+84%fromtodaybutallofthatmustbedevelopedby2026ifforecastlevelsofdemandaretoberealised.However,theshort-termsituationfortheindustrywillbemorechallenging.Demandandsupplyappeartobeveryfinelybalancedin2019and,accordingtoourcalculations,therecouldbeadeficitinsupplyin2020,meaningtheplannedprojectsmustbedevelopedquickly.

Thereisover18.4Mt/yofindustrialcapacityinvariousstagesofdevelopmentglobally.Ifallweretocomeonline,industrialcapacitywouldgrow+84%fromtodaybutallofthatmustbedevelopedby2026ifforecastlevelsofdemandaretoberealised.However,theshort-termsituationfortheindustrywillbemorechallenging.Demandandsupplyappeartobeveryfinelybalancedin2019and,accordingtoourcalculations,therecouldbeadeficitinsupplyin2020,meaningtheplannedprojectsmustbedevelopedquickly.



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